-38%

est. 2Y upside i

Climate TechSeries B

Rank

#3572

Sector

Renewable Energy

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Caelux presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in perovskite solar.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+50%

Caelux achieves rapid commercialization through the Solx partnership, scaling revenue to $15M and capturing premium valuation multiples of 8x forward revenue, resulting in a total exit valuation of $120M (50% upside from entry).

Base (50%)-6%

Partnership yields moderate revenue of $15M but multiples compress to 5x due to competitive pressures and market skepticism, yielding exit of $75M (-6.25% from entry).

Bear (40%)-100%

Commercialization fails to scale, revenue remains negligible, exit valuation falls below the $74.1M liquidation preference leading to 100% loss for common stock.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

93%

Total funding of $74.1M represents 93% of the estimated $80M post-money valuation, leaving only $5.9M of common equity value.

Dilution Risk

high

With only $30M from Series B and high capital intensity, the company will likely need additional funding within 24 months, diluting common holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity has been reported.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Caelux's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Caelux's Active Glass compare to competing approaches from Oxford PV or Swift Solar in terms of cost per watt and durability?”

  • 2

    “What are the key milestones to achieve breakeven manufacturing, and what is the expected timeline for the Solx partnership to generate revenue?”

  • 3

    “Given the significant preference stack ($74.1M), what is the current 409A valuation for common stock, and how does that impact option strike prices?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -38% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.