-23%

est. 2Y upside i

Climate Tech

Sunrun for the developing world

Rank

#2804

Sector

Renewable Energy

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given the current valuation of $102M at 3x revenue, well above public comps, and severe preference overhang (89.8M in funding), the 2-year equity return is expected to be -22.9% weighted across scenarios.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (20%)+43%

Assumes exit multiple holds at 3x on $55.3M revenue, driven by a successful Series D and IPO window opening in Mexico. Net of 20% dilution, 42.5% upside.

Base (55%)-12%

Exit multiple converges to 2x, in line with public solar financiers (1-2x). Revenue grows to $55.3M, but dilution and slight multiple compression lead to -11.7% return.

Bear (25%)-100%

Exit multiple falls to 1x or below, with exit value ($55.3M) below total funding ($89.8M), common stock wiped out by 1x preference. -100% return.

Est. time to liquidity~2.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

8800%

Total funding of $89.8M represents 88% of the $102M valuation, meaning common stock is heavily subordinated.

Dilution Risk

high

An upcoming Series D round of $30-60M is expected, which could dilute existing common shareholders by 20-30%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity reported; liquidity likely only through an IPO or acquisition.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Bright's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Bright's proprietary financing platform create a competitive moat versus larger international solar developers entering Mexico?”

  • 2

    “What are the key assumptions behind your revenue growth projections, given the lack of disclosed historical growth rates?”

  • 3

    “Given the high preference overhang and upcoming Series D, how do you think about the timing and likelihood of a liquidity event for common stock?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -23% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.