Brds
-9%
est. 2Y upside i
Rank
#3128
Sector
Transportation
Est. Liquidity
~3Y
Data Quality
Data: LowWithout a current valuation mark, analysis has low confidence.
Last updated: July 3, 2026
Bull case: Market share gains from Lime's regulatory issues lead to revenue growth of 20%+ and exit multiple expands to 6x (IPO window). Implied exit $1.16B, upside after dilution ~117%.
Base case: Steady growth of 15% with exit multiple converging to 4x, exit $772M, upside ~39% after dilution.
Bear case: Lime's dominance forces market share loss; revenue growth slows to 5%; exit multiple compresses to 2x, exit $386M below $1.12B liquidation preference, common equity worthless (-100%).
Preference Stack Risk
severeFunding Intensity
74600%Total funding of $1.12B is 224% of assumed entry valuation $500M, meaning common equity is deep in the money only if exit exceeds $1.12B.
Dilution Risk
moderateCompany raised $20M recently, may need more; assume 15% dilution over 2 years.
Secondary Liquidity
noneNo evidence of secondary transactions; employee equity likely illiquid until exit.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Brds's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How does the company plan to achieve unit economics improvement given high capital intensity and regulatory caps?”
- 2
“What is the path to profitability and cash flow positivity given the $1.12B in funding?”
- 3
“How are employee equity grants structured in terms of liquidity and protection in a down round scenario?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates -9% upside. What do you think?
Anonymous. Do not share material non-public information.
Community Discussion
Comments are reviewed before they appear publicly.
Loading comments...
Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.