BladeLogic

bmc.com →

-16%

est. 2Y upside i

Rank

#2664

Sector

Enterprise Software

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity upside is negative (-15.9% expected) over 2 years due to a massive preference stack ($18.9B) exceeding the entry valuation ($8.3B), low growth, and high probability of bear case where common stock is worthless.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (15%)+74%

IPO window opens, re-rating to 6x forward revenue ($14.4B exit). Strong switching costs and subscription transition support multiple.

Base (40%)+45%

Multiple converges to 5x forward revenue ($12.0B exit), reflecting slow growth but stable cash flows.

Bear (45%)-100%

Exit at 3x forward revenue ($7.2B) is below $18.9B preference stack; common stock returns -100%.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

22800%

Total funding of $18.9B (including debt) is 228% of current valuation, meaning common stock is deeply subordinated.

Dilution Risk

low

No dilutive equity raise expected within 2 years given profitability and recent carve-out.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market data available; equity is illiquid.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on BladeLogic's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does BMC plan to regain market share from ServiceNow in ITSM?”

  • 2

    “What is the timeline for the subscription transition and its impact on revenue recognition?”

  • 3

    “Given the preference stack, what is the realistic liquidation timeline for common equity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -16% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.