BitPay
-77%
est. 2Y upside i
Rank
#3929
Sector
Fintech
Est. Liquidity
~3Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumBitPay presents a risky equity opportunity for a job seeker.
Last updated: March 10, 2026
Continued mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency payments, coupled with BitPay's expansion into new blockchain networks like Solana and Polygon, and strategic partnerships, drives transaction volume and revenue to over $100M by 2028. This growth, along with a favorable crypto market, justifies a valuation exceeding $1 billion, allowing for meaningful returns above the preference stack.
BitPay maintains its market position, growing revenue modestly to around $48M by 2028, primarily through stablecoin payment volume and existing merchant relationships. The company secures a modest uplift in valuation to approximately $475M, but returns for common stock are significantly constrained by the substantial liquidation preferences.
Intensified competition from dominant incumbents like Coinbase, PayPal, and Square, coupled with regulatory headwinds or a prolonged crypto market downturn, severely impacts BitPay's transaction volume and pricing power. Revenue growth stalls, leading to a down round or acquisition at a valuation of approximately $110M, effectively wiping out most or all common stock value due to the $103M in liquidation preferences.
Preference Stack Risk
highFunding Intensity
28%Investors hold $103M in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock, representing 28.1% of the current $366M valuation.
Dilution Risk
highGiven the Series B was in 2018, further funding rounds are likely before a liquidity event, which will result in additional dilution for common stock holders.
Secondary Liquidity
limitedAs a privately held company with an older funding round, active secondary markets for employee equity are likely limited or non-existent.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on BitPay's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“Given the 2018 Series B valuation, how does BitPay assess its current valuation and what are the company's plans for future funding rounds or a liquidity event within the next 2-3 years?”
- 2
“With major players like Coinbase and PayPal expanding their crypto payment offerings, what specific strategies is BitPay implementing to differentiate its services and maintain its competitive moat?”
- 3
“Considering the significant liquidation preferences from prior funding rounds, how does BitPay ensure that common stock equity remains a compelling incentive for new and existing employees?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates -77% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.