Bison Trails

-78%

est. 2Y upside i

DevOps & Infra

Bison Trails, acquired by Coinbase and now part of Coinbase Cloud, provides a platform for users to run secure infrastructure on multiple blockchains.

Rank

#3200

Sector

Blockchain Infrastructure

Est. Liquidity

~0Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity opportunity is in Coinbase (COIN), a publicly traded company, as Bison Trails was acquired and integrated into Coinbase Cloud in 2021.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (30%)+100%

A strong and sustained crypto bull market, coupled with favorable regulatory clarity and significant expansion of Coinbase Cloud's market share (leveraging Bison Trails' technology), drives increased trading volumes and subscription revenue. This could push Coinbase's market cap to $106B+ within two years, reflecting a 2x return from its current valuation.

Base (30%)+25%

Coinbase maintains its position as a leading crypto exchange amidst moderate crypto market growth. Subscription and services revenue, including Coinbase Cloud offerings, grows steadily, partially offsetting volatility in trading fees. The company's market cap reaches approximately $66.25B, representing a 25% upside from its current valuation.

Bear (40%)-40%

A prolonged crypto bear market, coupled with increased regulatory scrutiny or a significant competitive threat from traditional finance or other exchanges, severely impacts Coinbase's trading volumes and profitability. Despite Coinbase Cloud's efforts, the company's market cap could drop to around $31.8B, resulting in a 40% downside from its current valuation.

Est. time to liquidity~0.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

As a publicly traded company, Coinbase's common stock (RSUs or options) does not have liquidation preferences ahead of it.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Dilution primarily comes from ongoing stock-based compensation plans for employees, which can increase the number of outstanding shares over time.

Secondary Liquidity

active

As a publicly traded company on NASDAQ, Coinbase equity is actively traded on public markets, providing immediate liquidity.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Bison Trails's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

1
“How does Coinbase Cloud plan to differentiate its blockchain infrastructure services (including those from Bison Trails) from offerings by major cloud providers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, especially given the departure of Bison Trails' co-founders?”
2
“Given the volatility of transaction-based revenue, what is Coinbase's strategy for growing its subscription and services revenue (including Coinbase Cloud) to achieve more stable and predictable financial performance over the next two years?”
3
“Considering Coinbase is a public company, how does the company manage employee equity grants (RSUs/options) to ensure they remain competitive and motivating, especially in light of market fluctuations and potential dilution?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -78% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.