-26%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries D+

Rank

#2859

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The equity offers a negative expected upside of -25.9% over 2 years due to a high entry multiple (14.25x ARR) and critical threats from incumbent platforms.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+12%

IPO window opens and multiple holds at 12x, supported by category leadership and strong integration moat. Revenue reaches $302M, exit $3.62B, net of 15% dilution yields 12.2% upside.

Base (45%)-9%

Revenue reaches $302M, exit multiple converges to public comp average of 10x, exit $3.02B. After 15% dilution, upside is -9.0% from entry.

Bear (45%)-51%

Intensified competition from Microsoft and Cisco compresses multiple to 6x, revenue growth slows further, exit $1.81B. After 15% dilution, downside is -51.4%.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2370%

Total preferred liquidation preference of $676M represents 23.7% of current $2.85B valuation, a high overhang that reduces common recovery.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Likely one more funding round before IPO, estimated at 15% dilution based on capital needs and recent cost reductions.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

No recent secondary market trades; liquidity expected upon IPO or acquisition, likely in 2-3 years.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Axonius's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Axonius plan to defend its standalone position against Microsoft and Cisco's bundling of asset visibility?”

  • 2

    “What are the unit economics and gross margin trends, and how much operating leverage remains to reach profitability?”

  • 3

    “Given the CEO change to prepare for IPO, what is the realistic timeline to liquidity and how will dilution be managed?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -26% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.