+36%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries A

Scheduling and workforce management SaaS for home healthcare providers

Rank

#2214

Sector

Healthtech, SaaS

Est. Liquidity

~6Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Axle Health carries a positive but speculative expected upside (~36%) that is dominated by a high-probability base scenario offering only modest paper gains and a material bear scenario (~35% probability) where common stock is nearly wiped out by $14.3M in liquidation preferences.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (22%)+200%

Axle Health deploys the $10M Series A to hire enterprise sales talent and accelerates ARR from $2.3M to $8–10M by end-2027 (~80%+ YoY), attracting a Series B at ~$100–120M (~12x ARR). On-paper employee equity triples from an estimated ~$50M entry valuation, though actual liquidity still requires a subsequent exit event.

Base (43%)+35%

Growth improves modestly from 9% to ~20–25% YoY with fresh capital, reaching ~$3.5M ARR by end-2027; a Series B prices at ~$65–75M (~18–20x ARR), yielding a ~35% uplift from the estimated ~$50M entry valuation. No liquidity event materializes within the 2-year window and dilution from the new round offsets some paper gain.

Bear (35%)-65%

Growth remains stuck in single digits, the $10M Series A burns through in 18–24 months without a clear inflection, and the company is forced into a down round or distressed acquisition below Series A terms. The $14.3M in liquidation preferences absorbs all or most of exit proceeds, eroding common-stock value by 60–70%.

Est. time to liquidity~6.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2860%

Total funding of $14.3M sits against an estimated ~$50M post-money Series A valuation (actual valuation undisclosed), implying ~28.6% of any exit proceeds are absorbed by preferred shareholders before common stock receives a dollar.

Dilution Risk

high

At $2.3M ARR the company will require at least a Series B and likely a Series C before any exit, exposing current option and RSU holders to 30–50%+ cumulative dilution across future rounds.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity, tender offers, or structured liquidity programs are evident for a 37-person Series A company with two named customers and no disclosed IPO or M&A signals.

View all 2 open roles at Axle Health →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Axle Health's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “You closed a $10M Series A but ARR grew only 9% last year — what specifically caused that slowdown, and what concrete changes in sales motion or product are you funding with the new capital to hit your next growth target?”

  • 2

    “What is the post-money valuation from the Series A round, and how does my strike price or RSU grant price compare to that — can you walk me through the cap table structure and liquidation preference stack?”

  • 3

    “Given you are Series A with two notable enterprise customers, what is your realistic path to a liquidity event — are you building toward an IPO, a strategic acquisition by a major EMR vendor, or a longer private company trajectory?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +36% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.