-93%

est. 2Y upside i

Series B

AVAX, created by Ava Labs, is a cryptocurrency that uses Avalanche consensus.

Rank

#3726

Sector

Blockchain Technology

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Given the extremely high valuation ($5.25B) relative to modest revenue ($10M), the expected upside is strongly negative.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (10%)-69%

Despite strong enterprise adoption and potential IPO, revenue growth only reaches $20M, far below entry valuation, causing large decline even with expanded multiple of 100x. Dilution of 20% further reduces returns.

Base (50%)-92%

Multiple contracts to 25x, revenue grows modestly to $20M, resulting in exit value of $506M, significantly below entry. After preference and dilution, common equity loses 92%.

Bear (40%)-100%

Multiple compresses to 15x, exit value $304M below total funding of $368M, common stock recovers nothing. Layoffs and competitive pressure from Ethereum exacerbate decline.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

7%

Total preferred funding of $368M is only 7% of current valuation, implying low preference overhang.

Dilution Risk

moderate

With $10M revenue and $368M total funding, the company may need additional capital within 2 years, causing 15-25% dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity reported, so employee equity is illiquid.

Other — 7 roles

View all 7 open roles at Ava Labs →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Ava Labs's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Ava Labs plan to capture network value beyond service revenue?”

  • 2

    “What is the company's current cash burn rate and runway?”

  • 3

    “What milestones would trigger an IPO or secondary sale, and how would that affect employee equity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -93% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.