-9%

est. 2Y upside i

Series B

Rank

#2518

Sector

Defense Tech

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Auterion's equity has limited expected upside over 2 years (≈ -9% probability-weighted) due to a high entry multiple, significant preference overhang, and competitive threats from integrated defense tech players.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (15%)+92%

Exit multiple expands to 7x as IPO window opens and Auterion's open-source standard drives category leadership, yielding $1.27B exit. After 20% dilution, net upside 92.3%.

Base (45%)+1%

Exit multiple converges to 4x (upper comp range) with $728M exit. 20% dilution nearly offsets the modest gain, leaving 1.3% net upside.

Bear (40%)-59%

Multiple compresses to 2x due to competitive pressure, exit value $364M. After 20% dilution and preference overhang, common stock loses 59.3%.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

3250%

Total funding of $195M represents 32.5% of the $600M entry valuation, meaning common stock is highly diluted in the capital stack.

Dilution Risk

high

A reported $200M raise at a $1.2B+ valuation would further dilute existing common holders by an estimated 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market transactions have been reported; liquidity depends on an IPO or acquisition.

Other — 42 roles

View all 42 open roles at Auterion →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Auterion's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Auterion plan to compete against vertically integrated platforms like Anduril's Lattice or Shield AI's Hivemind?”

  • 2

    “Can you walk through how the open-source model drives sustainable revenue growth beyond the current customer base?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline to liquidity, and how has the company approached secondary market opportunities for employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -9% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.