-39%

est. 2Y upside i

AI & MLSeries A

Ultra-precise AI weather forecasting.

Rank

#98

Sector

AI Meteorology

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Atmo operates in a high-growth AI meteorology market with a strong competitive moat derived from its proprietary AI and strategic government partnerships.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (35%)+400%

Atmo leverages its proprietary AI and strategic government/military partnerships to become a dominant player in AI-powered precision weather forecasting. It significantly expands its enterprise customer base, capturing a large share of the growing $4.6B TAM. This drives revenue to $100M+ by 2028, justifying a $450M+ valuation (5x current) at a 4.5x revenue multiple, well above the current $90M.

Base (35%)+120%

Atmo continues to grow steadily, securing additional government and enterprise contracts while maintaining its technological edge. It faces increasing competition from well-funded startups and incumbent tech giants. Revenue reaches $40M by 2028, leading to a $200M valuation (2.2x current) at a 5x revenue multiple, reflecting solid execution but not explosive growth.

Bear (30%)-80%

Dominant incumbents like Google or IBM, or well-funded competitors like Tomorrow.io (valued over $1B), aggressively enter or expand in Atmo's core market, commoditizing AI weather forecasting. Atmo struggles to scale sales and marketing, leading to slower-than-expected revenue growth. A down round or acquisition at a distressed valuation of $18M (0.2x current) wipes out most common stock value given the $20M in liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Investors hold $20M in liquidation preferences ahead of common shareholders, representing 22.2% of the estimated $90M valuation.

Dilution Risk

high

As a Series A company, Atmo will likely raise additional funding rounds (Series B, C, etc.), which will dilute existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no active secondary market or tender offer for Atmo's shares at this stage.

Other — 1 role

  • Jobs · San Francisco, CA
View all 1 open roles at Atmo →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Atmo's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the strong competitive moat from your proprietary neural networks and existing government partnerships, how do you plan to leverage this advantage to expand into new enterprise verticals and accelerate market penetration beyond the current ~9%?”

  • 2

    “With a TAM growing at 34% YoY, what are the key milestones and revenue targets Atmo aims to achieve over the next 2-3 years, and what strategies are in place to manage the long sales cycles often associated with government and military contracts?”

  • 3

    “Considering the Series A funding and the potential for future rounds, how is the company thinking about managing dilution for early employees, and what is the anticipated timeline or strategy for a potential liquidity event?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -39% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.