Athelas
-100%
est. 2Y upside i
Extensible, Integrated Technology that Simplifies Health Systems
Rank
#3810
Sector
HealthTech
Est. Liquidity
~2Y
Data Quality
Data: LowBased on the current $7B valuation and $37.5M revenue (186x multiple), the 2-year equity upside scenario is highly unfavorable, with all scenarios resulting in a total loss of value.
Last updated: July 19, 2026
Given an assumed 80% growth rate with decay, even a 15x exit multiple yields only $1.3B exit, well below the $7B entry, resulting in a 100% loss on common equity after dilution.
Base case 5x multiple yields $435M exit, far below entry, and after dilution and preference, equity is worth zero.
Bear case 2.5x multiple yields $217.5M exit, below total funding, so common stock recovers nothing per preference stack.
Preference Stack Risk
lowFunding Intensity
6%Total funding of $406M is relatively small compared to $7B valuation, so preference overhang is low.
Dilution Risk
moderateWith $406M total funding and 352 employees, the company may require additional funding within 24 months, leading to 15-25% dilution.
Secondary Liquidity
noneSecondary implied value is not available; no known secondary trading.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Athelas's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How does Athelas plan to grow revenue from $37.5M to a level that justifies its $7B valuation within 2 years?”
- 2
“What is the expected timeline for an IPO and what factors could accelerate or delay it?”
- 3
“Given the high valuation, what is the current 409A valuation for common stock and how does it compare to the preferred round valuation?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates -100% upside. What do you think?
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Community Discussion
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.