-70%

est. 2Y upside i

InsurTechSeries D+

Rank

#3840

Sector

InsurTech

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Given the current entry valuation of $1B and modest 20% growth, the expected equity upside over 2 years is deeply negative at -70% probability-weighted.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+38%

At-Bay's integrated cyber insurance + security model attracts an acquisition offer at 8x forward revenue from a traditional insurer, creating 58.4% pre-dilution upside, net of dilution yields 38.4%.

Base (55%)-71%

Revenue grows modestly but multiple contracts to 2.5x (in line with insurtech peers), exit value $495M vs $1B entry, resulting in -50.5% pre-dilution, or -70.5% after dilution.

Bear (35%)-100%

Revenue growth stalls, multiple craters to 1.5x, exit value barely exceeds preference stack; common stock recovers ~0%, yielding -100% return.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

2920%

Total preferred funding of $292M represents 29% of current valuation, creating a high liquidation overhang that would nearly wipe out common in a bear case.

Dilution Risk

high

With no raise since Oct 2021 and unprofitable operations, a dilutive down round is likely within 2 years.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Secondary market implied valuation of $1B as of June 2026, down from $1.35B prior, indicating limited liquidity at a declining price.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on At Bay's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does At-Bay's claims frequency compare to traditional insurers, and what is the loss ratio trend?”

  • 2

    “What is the path to profitability given the recent layoffs and high capital intensity?”

  • 3

    “How does the equity package compare to a cash bonus or a public company stock grant?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -70% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.