-21%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries D+

Advanced satellites for high orbits.

Rank

#3335

Sector

Aerospace & Defense

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Astranis shows strong technology and revenue growth, but the entry valuation based on secondary market ($1.76B) implies a 24.8x multiple on current $71M revenue.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (20%)+85%

IPO within 2 years drives multiple expansion to 30x; revenue reaches $498M. Net of 15% dilution, upside 85%.

Base (35%)+12%

Multiple converges to 4.5x, revenue hits $498M. After 15% dilution, net upside 12%.

Bear (45%)-100%

Multiple compresses to 2x; exit value $996M below $1.2B liquidation preference, common stock zero. No return.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

6820%

Total funding $1.2B vs entry valuation $1.76B = 68% overhang; common stock recovers nothing below $1.2B exit.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Latest Series E may be last pre-IPO, but option pool increases could dilute 10-20% before liquidity.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Secondary trades at $1.76B imply some liquidity, but volume is likely thin for a private company.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Astranis's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    How do you plan to differentiate from Starlink's LEO network given its scale advantage?

  • 2

    What is the typical contract duration and renewal rate for your Bandwidth-as-a-Service customers?

  • 3

    Given the preference stack and recent secondary valuation, how do you think common stock will return value to employees in an IPO?

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -21% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.