-59%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries A

Arpeggio Bio develops drugs targeting transcription factors using AI…

Rank

#1260

Sector

Biotechnology

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Arpeggio Bio presents a strong upside opportunity driven by its proprietary AI-driven drug discovery platform and early clinical validation, operating in a large and growing market.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (25%)+300%

Arpeggio's AI-driven platform rapidly identifies and advances a novel therapeutic candidate for IO-resistant melanoma into successful Phase II trials, attracting a major pharmaceutical partnership with significant upfront payments and milestones. The platform's utility expands, leading to multiple new discovery collaborations and pushing the valuation to $400M+ by 2028.

Base (45%)+50%

Arpeggio continues to secure R&D service contracts with pharmaceutical partners and makes steady progress on its lead pipeline candidate, reaching IND filing or early Phase I completion. The proprietary platform maintains its competitive edge, but drug development timelines and capital requirements keep valuation growth moderate, leading to a $150M valuation by 2028, likely requiring another significant funding round.

Bear (30%)-75%

The lead drug candidate faces unexpected preclinical or early clinical setbacks, or a major incumbent develops a highly competitive AI-driven drug discovery platform, eroding Arpeggio's competitive advantage and service revenue. The company struggles to raise subsequent funding rounds, leading to a down round to $25M, which significantly impacts common stock value given the existing liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Funding Intensity

20%

Investors have put in $20M, meaning they hold $20M in liquidation preferences ahead of common stock at the current $100M valuation.

Dilution Risk

high

The company is actively raising a new round of up to $35.3M and will likely require several more significant funding rounds to bring drugs to market, leading to substantial future dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

none

As an early-stage, privately held biotech company, there is currently no active secondary market or tender offers for employee equity.

Other — 1 role

View all 1 open roles at Arpeggio Bio →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Arpeggio Bio's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the strong competitive moat from your proprietary platform and database, how do you plan to maintain this advantage against larger incumbents like Johnson & Johnson or Novartis who could invest heavily in similar internal AI-driven drug discovery capabilities?”

  • 2

    “With your lead program in IO-resistant melanoma advancing and a validated platform with Phase I success in rare disease and inflammation, what is the strategic balance between developing your own drug pipeline and expanding your R&D service contracts with pharmaceutical partners over the next 2-3 years?”

  • 3

    “The company has recently initiated a new funding offering targeting up to $35.3M. How does this impact the expected timeline for future funding rounds and potential liquidity events for employees, and what is the company's philosophy on managing dilution for early employees?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -59% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.