-57%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries B

Arpeggio Bio develops drugs targeting transcription factors using AI…

Rank

#3738

Sector

Biotechnology

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

The equity offer likely has negative expected value (-57%) over 2 years due to a high preference overhang, missing growth metrics, and significant downside risk from incumbents.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (10%)+26%

IPO window opens and category leadership drives multiple to 25x. Projected revenue $4.68M yields $117M market cap, net of 20% dilution delivers 26% upside.

Base (45%)-32%

Multiple converges to 15x, inline with comps. $70.2M market cap, net dilution yields -32% upside. No catalyst to justify premium.

Bear (45%)-100%

Multiple compresses to 8x ($37.4M exit), below $49.5M liquidation preference. Common stock worthless, -100% return.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

6190%

Total funding $49.5M on an estimated $80M valuation gives a 62% preference overhang, severely diluting common in a downside exit.

Dilution Risk

high

With $3M revenue and $49.5M raised, the company likely needs additional capital within 24 months, causing 15-25% dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity detected; no liquidity prior to an exit.

Other — 1 role

View all 1 open roles at Arpeggio Bio →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Arpeggio Bio's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is the company's current revenue growth rate and path to profitability?”

  • 2

    “How does the platform's nascent-RNA dataset create a defensible competitive advantage against TechBio incumbents?”

  • 3

    “What is the expected timeline to liquidity and how has the board discussed exit options?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -57% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.