-42%

est. 2Y upside i

Hardware

Rank

#3143

Sector

Networking Hardware

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

The expected equity upside is -41.5% over 2 years due to the high current valuation of $212B (23.6x revenue) and likely multiple compression as growth slows.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (15%)+41%

Exit multiple holds at 23.6x as Arista sustains growth with AI fabric leadership ($3.5B AI target) and EOS moat; implied market cap ~$300B.

Base (40%)-40%

Multiple compresses to 10x as growth decelerates toward 16% and competition from Cisco/Nvidia pressures margins; implied market cap ~$127B.

Bear (45%)-70%

Multiple collapses to 5x due to share loss to Nvidia InfiniBand or Cisco renewal; implied market cap ~$63B, common stock severely impaired.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

low

Funding Intensity

0%

No total funding on record, so no preference overhang; common stock faces direct upside/downside.

Dilution Risk

low

Company is profitable and not raising capital; no dilution assumed in 2-year horizon.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Secondary market exists (valuation source), but activity is likely thin for employee shares.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Arista's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Arista plan to defend against Nvidia's InfiniBand in AI networking while pushing open Ethernet?”

  • 2

    “What is the recurring revenue mix from EOS and CloudVision subscriptions vs. one-time hardware sales?”

  • 3

    “Given the high current valuation and compression risk, how would you evaluate the potential of equity grants here?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -42% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.