Arcol

Arcol achieves strong PMF in early-design workflows, expands to full BIM documentation, and is acquired by Autodesk, Procore, or a PE AEC consolidator at $200-350M (3-6x current valuation) within 6-8 years. After the $17M preference stack is absorbed, common stockholders would see approximately +300% on grant-date equity value — equivalent to a roughly 4x outcome for employees granted at today's ~$60M valuation.

Arcol carves out a defensible niche in pre-design collaboration, reaches $4-8M ARR by 2029, and raises dilutive additional rounds at modest up-rounds before either a modest acquisition around $80-120M or continued independent operation. After 30-40% additional dilution from future rounds and the preference stack, common stockholders realize a modest +20-30% on their grant-date equity value over 6-8 years.

Autodesk accelerates Forma and Revit cloud-native collaboration, directly neutralizing Arcol's core differentiator; Arcol fails to scale beyond an early-adopter niche, burns through its ~$17M in runway without achieving sufficient growth to raise, and is wound down or sold at a distressed price under $10M. Common stockholders receive near zero after the $17M liquidation preference stack is exhausted, representing approximately -80% loss on grant-date equity value.