-69%

est. 2Y upside i

FinTechSeries A

Arc is the capital management platform for ambitious companies and private investors. Arc serves the innovation economy with intelligent cash management and capital markets solutions, in partnership with leading financial institutions and a proprietary network of private credit funds.

Rank

#1428

Sector

Fintech

Est. Liquidity

~4Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Arc presents a moderate upside opportunity for a job seeker, driven by its strong growth in deposits and users (12x and 4,000+ respectively in 2023) and its differentiated AI-powered approach to non-dilutive capital and cash management in a large, growing market.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (30%)+250%

Arc's AI-powered platform for non-dilutive capital and cash management achieves significant market penetration, leveraging its proprietary underwriting and network effects. Strong adoption of 'Archie' as a virtual CFO and successful international expansion drive revenue to over $200M by 2028, justifying a $1.4B+ valuation at a healthy multiple, well above the assumed current $400M.

Base (35%)+50%

Arc continues to grow steadily in its niche, maintaining its competitive position against players like Pipe and Capchase. While facing ongoing competition from broader fintech platforms like Brex and Mercury, its specialized focus on non-dilutive capital and AI-driven insights allows for sustained growth. Revenue reaches approximately $100M by 2028, leading to a $600M valuation, a modest increase from the assumed current $400M.

Bear (35%)-70%

Increased competition from well-funded incumbents and aggressive pricing from competitors like Brex and Mercury erode Arc's market share and pricing power. Regulatory headwinds or a downturn in startup funding reduce demand for non-dilutive capital. Growth stalls, leading to a down round or acquisition at a significantly lower valuation of $120M, wiping out most common stock value given the $31M in liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~4.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Arc has raised $31M in equity funding. Assuming a current valuation of $400M, investors hold $31M in liquidation preferences. In an exit at or below $31M, common stock would receive little to nothing. At a $400M exit, common stock would be worth $369M.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Given the company's stage and total equity raised, it is likely to pursue additional funding rounds before a potential IPO, which will lead to further dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

While platforms like Prospect and UpMarket suggest avenues for selling private shares, active and broad secondary liquidity is not guaranteed for private companies like Arc.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Arc's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the competitive landscape with players like Brex and Mercury, how does Arc plan to further differentiate its AI-powered cash management and non-dilutive capital offerings to capture and retain market share?”

  • 2

    “Arc has shown impressive growth in deposits and users. What are the key drivers for sustaining this growth trajectory, particularly as the company scales and potentially seeks further funding rounds?”

  • 3

    “With the spin-out of F2 and Nick Lombardo becoming CEO, how does Arc envision its long-term strategy for a liquidity event, and what are the company's plans for managing employee equity and potential secondary liquidity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -69% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.