-44%

est. 2Y upside i

AerospaceSeries D+

Rank

#3542

Sector

Aerospace and Defense

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: High

Apex is a fast-growing company ($60M revenue in 2024, projected $120M-$200M in 2025) in a large and expanding aerospace and defense market, leveraging a differentiated mass-production approach for satellite buses.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (20%)+150%

Apex successfully scales its mass-production model, capturing significant market share from traditional bespoke satellite manufacturers and securing major defense and commercial contracts, including for initiatives like Golden Dome. Revenue exceeds $500M by 2027, justifying a $2.5B+ valuation, driven by superior delivery times and cost efficiency.

Base (28%)+50%

Apex continues its strong growth trajectory, expanding production capacity and customer base, but faces sustained competitive pressure from incumbents and other agile players. Revenue reaches $250M-$300M by 2027, leading to a $1.5B valuation, which provides a modest return for common shareholders after accounting for liquidation preferences.

Bear (52%)-60%

Intensified competition from incumbents like Lockheed Martin (via Terran Orbital) and Airbus, coupled with the ongoing lawsuit from York Space Systems, stifles Apex's market penetration and pricing power. Growth slows, and the company struggles to achieve profitability, leading to a down round or an acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of $400M or less, wiping out most or all common stock value given the $518M in liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~2.5 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

52%

Investors have raised $518M. In an exit at the current $1.0B valuation, common shareholders would receive approximately $482M after investors' liquidation preferences are met (assuming 1x preference). If the exit valuation is below $518M, common shareholders would likely receive nothing.

Dilution Risk

high

Apex raised $400M in Series C and D rounds within months in 2025, indicating a high burn rate and aggressive expansion. Further funding rounds are likely before an exit, leading to additional dilution for existing shareholders.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

While secondary markets exist for accredited investors, current activity for Apex stock is low, with reports of no active buyers or sellers, and transfers are typically subject to company approval.

View all 2 open roles at Apex →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Apex's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How is Apex thinking about differentiating its 'productized' satellite buses to defend against the increasing standardization efforts by dominant incumbents like Airbus and Lockheed Martin, especially given the competitive lawsuit from York Space Systems?”

  • 2

    “With projected revenue growth from $60M in 2024 to potentially $120M-$200M in 2025, what are the key operational and sales strategies to scale production to 144+ satellites annually by 2028 while maintaining quality and managing high capital intensity?”

  • 3

    “Given the Series D funding at a $1.0B valuation and the significant amount of capital raised ($518M), what is the company's anticipated timeline and strategy for a liquidity event (IPO or acquisition) for employees holding common stock or options?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -44% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.