+24%

est. 2Y upside i

HealthcareSeries A

Blood Test for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer

Rank

#2763

Sector

Biotechnology

Est. Liquidity

~5Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

AOA Dx offers speculative equity for a job candidate: the company is pre-commercial with $56.5M in cumulative funding stacked against an undisclosed valuation, very high capital intensity guarantees further dilution, and a realistic liquidity event is 4-6 years away — well beyond the 2-year analysis window.

Last updated: May 14, 2026

Bull (15%)+250%

AKRIVIS GD™ achieves breakthrough FDA designation and strong pivotal trial data by 2027, enabling a Series B at ~$300-400M valuation and drawing M&A interest from diagnostics majors (Labcorp, Exact Sciences) at 8-12x revenue; early common equity holders see ~250% paper gains. A strategic acquisition above $400M would clear the $56.5M preference stack and deliver meaningful returns to employees.

Base (50%)+25%

The company closes a Series B in 2026-2027 at a modest step-up (~$130-160M post-money), with AKRIVIS GD™ advancing through clinical trials but still 3+ years from commercial scale; equity marks up ~25% on paper but remains illiquid. Dilution from the new round partially offsets the valuation increase for common stockholders.

Bear (35%)-75%

Clinical setbacks, a competitive breakthrough by a better-capitalized rival such as Harbinger Health, or a funding gap forces a down round or acqui-hire at minimal premium over the $56.5M preference stack, wiping out ~75-85% of common stockholder value. The pre-commercial revenue profile and very high capital intensity make this a realistic 2-year outcome.

Est. time to liquidity~5.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

56%

With $56.5M in total cumulative funding and an estimated post-Series-A valuation of $80-120M, preferred liquidation preferences likely consume 47-71% of any exit proceeds before common stockholders receive a dollar.

Dilution Risk

high

As a pre-commercial, capital-intensive clinical-stage company, AOA Dx will require at least one to two additional equity rounds before commercialization, likely diluting current common stockholders by 35-55% cumulatively.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market or tender offer signals were identified; as a pre-commercial Series A company, employee equity is effectively illiquid until a financing event, strategic acquisition, or IPO.

View all 4 open roles at AOA Dx →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on AOA Dx's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “What is the current FDA regulatory pathway for AKRIVIS GD™ — PMA or De Novo 510(k) — and what specific clinical milestones in the next 12-18 months would support a Series B raise and at what target valuation?”

  • 2

    “Of the $56.5M in total funding, how much is preferred equity with liquidation preferences versus non-dilutive grants or government contracts, and what are the participation rights and anti-dilution terms on the preferred shares?”

  • 3

    “What is the post-approval go-to-market model — direct hospital/OB-GYN sales, reference lab partnerships with Labcorp or Quest, or integrated health system contracts — and what is the expected reimbursement strategy (CPT code, payer coverage timeline) for a novel liquid biopsy in the gynecologic oncology pathway?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +24% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.