-25%

est. 2Y upside i

Series D+

Rank

#4031

Sector

Defense Technology

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Genuine tech differentiation (Lattice OS, SRM) and 110% growth, but $60B at 60x revenue leaves no margin for error.

Last updated: March 21, 2026

Bull (25%)+40%

Revenue to $3-4B by 2028, IPO at 20-25x ($90-120B).

Base (50%)-10%

Growth moderates, revenue $2-2.5B, IPO at $50-70B — flat from primary.

Bear (25%)-45%

Budget sequester/incumbent pushback; growth stalls; flat/down round at $30-40B.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

12%

$7B on $60B (11.7%).

Dilution Risk

high

Not profitable; 1-2 more rounds before IPO.

Secondary Liquidity

active

Active at $84.1B implied — 40% premium over primary.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Anduril's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How does Anduril defend Lattice vs Lockheed/Northrop autonomous programs?”

  • 2

    “Path to gross margin expansion with SRM?”

  • 3

    “Equity strike price for new hires vs $60B primary?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -25% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.