-64%

est. 2Y upside i

Series D+

Rank

#3432

Sector

Defense Technology

Est. Liquidity

~2Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Given a $100B secondary entry price and 45x revenue multiple, the 2-year outlook is highly unfavorable.

Last updated: July 3, 2026

Bull (20%)+80%

If Anduril IPOs with strong growth narrative, forward revenue multiple could sustain above 30x, driving a 2x return before 20pp dilution. IPO window and category leadership as defense tech disruptor support this scenario.

Base (40%)-100%

As growth slows to ~62% YoY by year 2, the revenue multiple converges to the 1.5x-2x range of public defense primes, yielding an exit value of ~$13B, far below the $100B entry. Common stock recovers only $1.6B after preference, effectively -100% after dilution.

Bear (40%)-100%

Multiple compresses below 1x due to intense incumbent competition or macro headwinds, pushing exit value below the $11.4B liquidation preference. Common stock receives nothing, resulting in total loss.

Est. time to liquidity~2.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

moderate

Funding Intensity

11%

With $11.4B in preference over $100B entry (11.4% ratio), common shareholders face moderate risk of being underwater.

Dilution Risk

high

High burn rate and capital-intensive manufacturing may require further rounds, diluting existing holders by 15-25%.

Secondary Liquidity

limited

Anduril has restricted secondary sales, limiting exit options before liquidity event.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Anduril's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How would you evaluate the risk of government budget cycles on Anduril's growth?”

  • 2

    “What are the unit economics of a typical Lattice OS contract vs hardware sale?”

  • 3

    “Given the $100B secondary price, how do you assess the probability of a positive equity outcome in 2 years?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -64% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.