-56%

est. 2Y upside i

RoboticsAI & MLSeries D+

Rank

#3614

Sector

Waste Management, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: High

AMP Robotics operates in an attractive, growing market with a strong proprietary AI moat.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (25%)+90%

AMP Robotics leverages its proprietary AI and expanding 'Recycling as a Service' model to capture significant market share, driving revenue to over $150M by 2028. This strong growth and market leadership, coupled with successful expansion into operating its own facilities, justifies a valuation of approximately $870M, representing a strong return for common shareholders despite the preference stack.

Base (40%)+15%

AMP Robotics continues to grow steadily, maintaining its competitive edge with AI-powered sorting systems and expanding its customer base. Revenue reaches approximately $80M by 2028, leading to a modest valuation increase to around $527M. While growth is solid, competition from incumbents and other startups, alongside the preference stack, limits the upside for common stock.

Bear (35%)-50%

Increased competition from incumbents like BHS and agile startups matching AMP's accuracy, combined with slower-than-expected adoption of AI in recycling, leads to growth stagnation. Revenue struggles to exceed $60M by 2028, and a down round or exit at a reduced valuation of $229M or lower would result in common stock being largely or entirely wiped out due to the substantial liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

82%

Investors hold $377M in liquidation preferences. In an exit at the current $458M valuation, common stock would only see $81M distributed. If the exit is below $377M, common stock holders get nothing.

Dilution Risk

high

Given the high funding intensity (82.3%) and the need for further scaling in a capital-intensive industry, more funding rounds are likely, leading to additional dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

moderate

Secondary market access is available for accredited investors through platforms like StartEngine and Nasdaq Private Market.

Other — 1 role

View all 1 open roles at AMP Robotics →

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on AMP Robotics's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the expansion into operating your own facilities, how do you plan to manage potential direct competition with existing customers like Waste Management and GFL Environmental, and what strategies are in place to mitigate any conflicts of interest?”

  • 2

    “With the employee count decreasing by 16% last year, what specific measures are being taken to address talent retention, morale, and ensure the company can scale effectively to meet its growth objectives?”

  • 3

    “Considering the significant liquidation preferences from prior funding rounds, what is the company's strategy for achieving an exit valuation that provides meaningful returns for common stock holders, and what is the anticipated timeline for such a liquidity event?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -56% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.