Alcresta Therapeutics

alcresta.com →

-71%

est. 2Y upside i

Healthcare

Rank

#1815

Sector

Medical Devices

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Alcresta Therapeutics is a fast-growing (70% YoY net sales growth in 2022) and profitable (24% adjusted EBITDA in 2021) company with a unique FDA-cleared product, RELiZORB, and expanding indications.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (50%)+100%

Continued strong adoption of RELiZORB, driven by expanded FDA clearances for neonates and infants and positive clinical trial data in critical care and pancreatitis patients, pushes revenue to over $20M by 2028. This growth, coupled with sustained profitability (24% adjusted EBITDA reported in 2021), justifies a valuation of $500M, a 2x return from the current estimated valuation of $250M.

Base (25%)+60%

Steady growth of RELiZORB in existing and newly cleared indications, supported by ongoing real-world evidence, leads to revenue reaching $10-12M by 2028. The company maintains its profitable operations and moderate competitive moat, resulting in a valuation of $400M, a 60% increase from the current estimated valuation of $250M.

Bear (25%)-40%

Slower-than-expected adoption of RELiZORB in new patient populations, increased competition from larger players, or unforeseen regulatory challenges limit revenue growth. This could lead to a flat or declining valuation, potentially a down round or an exit at a lower multiple, resulting in a valuation of $150M. Given the $96M in liquidation preferences, common stock holders would see significant value erosion.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Investors hold $96M in liquidation preferences. In an exit at or below an estimated $250M valuation, common stock holders may receive little or nothing.

Dilution Risk

moderate

Under private equity ownership, primary dilution from venture rounds is less likely, but new equity grants to management and employees could still cause dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

none

Secondary liquidity is typically non-existent for private equity-owned companies unless the PE firm facilitates a rare tender offer.

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Last updated: March 10, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Alcresta Therapeutics's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “Given the acquisition by Linden Capital Partners, how is the company's strategic roadmap and timeline for a future liquidity event (IPO or sale) being shaped, particularly within a 2-year horizon for employee equity holders?”

  • 2

    “With the recent FDA clearances for expanded use of RELiZORB in neonates and infants, what are the specific commercialization strategies and expected revenue contributions from these new patient segments over the next 24 months?”

  • 3

    “Considering the $96M in total funding and the private equity ownership, how does the company structure employee equity (RSUs/options) to ensure meaningful upside for common stock holders, especially given the preference stack, and what are the mechanisms for potential secondary liquidity?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -71% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.