Airspace Intelligence
+34%
est. 2Y upside i
Rank
#1797
Sector
Aerospace & Defense
Est. Liquidity
~4Y
Data Quality
Data: MediumGiven the stale $300M valuation from 2023 and high uncertainty in growth rate, the expected upside is ~34% over 2 years, but with significant downside risk (40% probability of -48%).
Last updated: July 3, 2026
Multiple expands to 12x as Airspace Intelligence goes public or establishes category leadership, driven by $875M FAA contract execution and partnerships with Joby Aviation. Revenue reaches $68M, enterprise value $816M.
Multiple converges to 8x, in line with defense IT comps, as growth normalizes. Revenue reaches $68M, enterprise value $544M, yielding 64.8% net upside after 20% dilution.
Multiple compresses to 4x due to incumbent pressure from Palantir and Thales, or slower adoption. Revenue only $68M, enterprise value $272M. After preference stack and dilution, common stock loses 48%.
Preference Stack Risk
highFunding Intensity
1870%Total preferred stock of $56M (18.7% of entry valuation) creates a $56M cushion before common receives any proceeds.
Dilution Risk
highExpected capital raise within 24 months due to late-stage growth and potential cash burn, leading to ~20% dilution.
Secondary Liquidity
noneNo secondary market activity detected; illiquid until an IPO or acquisition.
Questions to Ask at the Interview
Strategic questions based on Airspace Intelligence's data — designed to show you've done your homework.
- 1
“How does Airspace Intelligence's predictive 4D modeling differ from Palantir's Gotham or Foundry in airspace applications?”
- 2
“What is the revenue split between commercial airlines and government contracts, and how does contract duration affect predictability?”
- 3
“Given the stale valuation, what do you think is the current fair value for equity grant purposes, and how would you negotiate a strike price?”
Community
Valuation Sentiment
Our model estimates +34% upside. What do you think?
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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.