Adaptive Security

adaptivesecurity.com

-53%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries B

Adaptive is a next-generation cybersecurity platform. We're working with pioneering security teams to protect critical systems from AI-powered cyber attacks. Our customers today include one of the largest payment aggregators in the United States, hedge funds and private equity firms, regional and national banks, leading technology companies, and critical healthcare systems.

Rank

#728

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Adaptive Security presents a strong upside opportunity driven by its exceptional product-market fit (94 NPS, 500+ enterprise customers in under a year) in the rapidly expanding and critical niche of AI-driven cyber threat defense.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (35%)+300%

Adaptive Security leverages its strong product-market fit (94 NPS) and experienced founders to become the undisputed leader in AI-driven security awareness, rapidly expanding its 500+ enterprise customer base. Revenue scales to ~$40-50M by 2028, justifying a $1.9B+ valuation (4x current) at a premium 40-50x multiple due to critical product in the evolving threat landscape and strong recurring revenue.

Base (30%)+75%

Adaptive Security maintains its strong growth trajectory, expanding its enterprise customer base and fending off competitive pressures by continuously innovating its AI-driven platform. Revenue reaches ~$25-30M by 2028, leading to an acquisition or next funding round at an ~$800-900M valuation (1.75x current), reflecting a solid 28-35x revenue multiple.

Bear (35%)-75%

Dominant incumbents like KnowBe4 or Proofpoint successfully pivot or acquire competitors to address AI-driven threats, or a new, better-funded startup gains traction. Adaptive Security's growth stalls, with revenue reaching only ~$15-20M. This forces a down round or acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of ~$120M, wiping out most common stock value given the $146.5M preference stack.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Investors hold $146.5M in liquidation preferences, representing 30.5% of the estimated $480M post-money valuation. In an exit at or below $146.5M, common stockholders would receive nothing.

Dilution Risk

moderate

As a Series B company, Adaptive Security will likely undergo at least one to two more funding rounds, leading to further dilution of existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

As a private Series B company, there is currently no active secondary market for Adaptive Security's shares.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Adaptive Security's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    Given the rapid evolution of AI-powered threats, how does Adaptive Security plan to continuously innovate and stay ahead of the curve, especially as larger incumbents like KnowBe4 or Proofpoint potentially enhance their AI capabilities?

  • 2

    With over 500 enterprise customers in less than a year and a 94 NPS, what are the key strategies for scaling customer acquisition and retention, and how do you see the average revenue per customer evolving?

  • 3

    Considering the Series B funding and the significant preference stack, what is the company's anticipated timeline and strategy for a liquidity event, and how does the leadership team view employee equity value in various exit scenarios?

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -53% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.