-49%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries D+

Rank

#2954

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Medium

Acalvio presents a moderate upside opportunity with higher risk, primarily due to an estimated current valuation of $300M on $14M revenue (a high ~21.4x P/S multiple) and a substantial $78M liquidation preference stack.

Last updated: March 10, 2026

Bull (21%)+175%

Acalvio's patented AI-powered deception technology achieves significant market penetration, potentially through a strategic acquisition by a major cybersecurity incumbent like Google or CrowdStrike, or by expanding its government client base. This drives revenue to $60M+ within two years, justifying an $825M+ valuation at a 13.75x P/S multiple.

Base (38%)+30%

Acalvio maintains its leadership in the deception technology niche, growing steadily despite incumbent competition. Revenue reaches $35M-$40M within two years, leading to an acquisition or IPO at approximately $390M, reflecting a modest increase from the current valuation.

Bear (41%)-50%

Dominant incumbents like SentinelOne (having acquired Attivo Networks) or Palo Alto Networks effectively integrate or develop their own advanced deception capabilities, eroding Acalvio's market share. Growth stalls, leading to a down round or acquisition at a significantly reduced valuation of $150M, severely impacting common stock value due to liquidation preferences.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

high

Investors hold $78M in liquidation preferences, which represents 26% of the estimated $300M current valuation. In an exit at or below $78M, common stock would receive nothing.

Dilution Risk

moderate

As a Series D company, Acalvio may require one or more additional funding rounds before a liquidity event, potentially leading to further dilution for existing equity holders.

Secondary Liquidity

none

There is no public information indicating an active secondary market or tender offers for Acalvio's shares.

View all 84 open roles at Acalvio →

Last updated: February 22, 2026

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Acalvio's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    “How is Acalvio strategically planning to navigate and defend its market position against the increasing threat from dominant incumbents like SentinelOne, especially after their acquisition of Attivo Networks?”

  • 2

    “With current estimated revenues around $14M, what are the specific growth initiatives and milestones Acalvio aims to achieve to reach the scale necessary for a successful liquidity event within the next 2-3 years?”

  • 3

    “Given the Series D funding round in 2022 and the total funding raised, how is the company thinking about the timeline for a liquidity event, and what mechanisms are in place to ensure meaningful returns for employee equity holders, particularly considering the preference stack?”

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates -49% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.