+14%

est. 2Y upside i

CybersecuritySeries D+

Rank

#1753

Sector

Cybersecurity

Est. Liquidity

~3Y

Data Quality

Data: Low

Equity offers moderate expected upside (13.6%) but high risk due to severe preference overhang and valuation uncertainty.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Bull (15%)+139%

IPO window and category leadership could expand multiple to 12x, yielding exit value $310.8M, net of 20% dilution upside 138.5%.

Base (40%)+66%

Multiple converges to 8x, exit $207.2M, net upside 65.6%.

Bear (45%)-74%

Multiple compresses to 5x, exit $129.5M, after $78.5M preference common recovers $51M, net dilution 20% results in -74.3%.

Est. time to liquidity~3.0 years

Preference Stack Risk

severe

Funding Intensity

7030%

Total funding of $78.5M represents 70.3% of entry valuation, creating a severe preference overhang.

Dilution Risk

high

Likely need to raise capital within 2 years given 4 years post-Series D, estimated 20% dilution.

Secondary Liquidity

none

No secondary market activity detected.

Questions to Ask at the Interview

Strategic questions based on Acalvio's data — designed to show you've done your homework.

  • 1

    How does Acalvio's deception technology differentiate from Palo Alto Networks' offerings?

  • 2

    What is the customer acquisition cost and lifetime value, and how does unit economics improve with scale?

  • 3

    Given the preference stack, what is the likely common stock outcome in an exit near current valuation?

Community

Valuation Sentiment

Our model estimates +14% upside. What do you think?

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Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated and does not constitute financial or career advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.